Free access to paper on Bayesian spatio-temporal models

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  • Author: Statistics Views
  • Date: 23 November 2015

Each week, we select a recently published article hot off the press and provide free access. This week's is from Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics and is now available in the latest issue.

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A Case Study for Modelling Cancer Incidence Using Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Models

Su Yun Kang, James McGree, Peter Baade and Kerrie Mengersen

Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics

Volume 57, Issue 3, pages 325–345, September 2015

DOI: 10.1111/anzs.12127

thumbnail image: Free access to paper on Bayesian spatio-temporal models

Researchers familiar with spatial models are aware of the challenge of choosing the level of spatial aggregation. Few studies have been published on the investigation of temporal aggregation and its impact on inferences regarding disease outcome in space–time analyses. We perform a case study for modelling individual disease outcomes using several Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal models, while taking into account the possible impact of spatial and temporal aggregation. Using longitudinal breast cancer data from South East Queensland, Australia, we consider both parametric and non-parametric formulations for temporal effects at various levels of aggregation. Two temporal smoothness priors are considered separately; each is modelled with fixed effects for the covariates and an intrinsic conditional autoregressive prior for the spatial random effects. Our case study reveals that different model formulations produce considerably different model performances. For this particular dataset, a classical parametric formulation that assumes a linear time trend produces the best fit among the five models considered. Different aggregation levels of temporal random effects were found to have little impact on model goodness-of-fit and estimation of fixed effects.

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