Nate Silver on UK's 'quiet revolution'


  • Author: Statistics Views
  • Date: 28 April 2015
  • Copyright: Image appears courtesy of Getty Images

In last night's Panorama, Nate Silver said it was too close to call as to whom will run the next government. Silver predicted the following statistics on 24th April - seats for Conservatives, 283, Labour 270, SNP 38, Liberal Democrats 24, DUP 8, UKIP 1 and the others on 16.

However, if these numbers tally with next month's election results, Silver says that he has "no idea" as to whom will win the next government. Silver arrived at these numbers after meeting UK voters whilst playing Bingo in Skegness, eating a cream tea in Devon, running around a market in Bury, making a successful bet at Ladbrokes and speaking on radio in Glasgow.

thumbnail image: Nate Silver on UK's 'quiet revolution'

In Scotland, membership of the SNP has quadrupled since the referendum. Silver predicts massive losses for Labour in Scotland and that the SNP will become the third largest party in Westminster with 45% of Scotland voting 'yes' to independence last year.

Silver says that it is this 'quiet revolution' in Scotland which is also reflected throughout the UK with possibly no two parties with a majority.

“Tories are the largest party but Labour + SNP are more than Tory + Lib Dems, but even then they are not a majority, they are not 325. Betting markets seem to think there will be more paths for Miliband in that case but that is an incredibly messy outcome. There is still enormous uncertainty about whom will form a government after May 7th."

Tories and Labour have dominated our country’s politics for a century but now smaller parties have the potential to determine who runs the House of Commons.

To see Silver's predictions in detail, an interactive map has been created at FiveThirtyEight.

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