Risk Analysis

Development of a Self‐Regulated Dynamic Model for the Propagation of  Salmonella  Typhimurium in Pig Farms

Journal Article

A self‐regulated epidemic model was developed to describe the dynamics of Salmonella Typhimurium in pig farms and predict the prevalence of different risk groups at slaughter age. The model was focused at the compartment level of the pig farms and it included two syndromes, a high and a low propagation syndrome. These two syndromes generated two different classes of pigs, the High Infectious and the Low Infectious, respectively, which have different shedding patterns. Given the two different classes and syndromes, the Infectious Equivalent concept was used, which reflected the combination of High and Low Infectious pigs needed for the high propagation syndrome to be triggered. Using the above information a new algorithm was developed that decides, depending on the Infectious Equivalent, which of the two syndromes should be triggered. Results showed that the transmission rate of S. Typhimurium for the low propagation syndrome is around 0.115, pigs in Low Infectious class contribute to the transmission of the infection by 0.61–0.80 of pigs in High Infectious class and that the Infectious Equivalent should be above 10–14% of the population in order for the high propagation syndrome to be triggered. This self‐regulated dynamic model can predict the prevalence of the classes and the risk groups of pigs at slaughter age for different starting conditions of infection.

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