Bayesian compartmental models and associated reproductive numbers for an infection with multiple transmission modes

Early View

  • Author(s): Marie V. Ozanne, Grant D. Brown, Angela J. Toepp, Breanna M. Scorza, Jacob J. Oleson, Mary E. Wilson, Christine A. Petersen
  • Article first published online: 16 Dec 2019
  • DOI: 10.1111/biom.13192
  • Read on Online Library
  • Subscribe to Journal

Abstract Zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (ZVL) is a serious neglected tropical disease that is endemic in 98 countries. ZVL is primarily transmitted via a sand fly vector. In the United States, it is enzootic in some canine populations; it is transmitted from infectious mother to pup transplacentally, and vector‐borne transmission is absent. This absence affords a unique opportunity to study (1) vertical transmission dynamics in dogs and (2) the importance of vertical transmission in maintaining an infectious reservoir in the presence of a vector. In this paper, we present Bayesian compartmental models and reproductive number formulations to examine (1) and (2), providing a mechanism to plan and evaluate interventions in regions where both transmission modes are present. First, we propose an individual‐level susceptible, infectious, removed (SIR) model to study the effect of maternal infection status during pregnancy on pup infection progression. We provide evidence that pups born to diagnostically positive mothers during pregnancy are more likely to become diagnostically positive both earlier in life, and at some point during their lifetime, than those born to diagnostically negative mothers. Second, we propose a population‐level SIR model to study the impact of a vertically maintained reservoir on propagating infection in a naive canine population through emergent vector transmission using simulation studies. We also present reproductive numbers to quantify contributions of vertically infected and vector‐infected dogs to maintaining infection in the population. We show that a vertically maintained canine reservoir can propagate infection in a theoretical naive population in the presence of a vector.

Related Topics

Related Publications

Related Content

Site Footer


This website is provided by John Wiley & Sons Limited, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ (Company No: 00641132, VAT No: 376766987)

Published features on are checked for statistical accuracy by a panel from the European Network for Business and Industrial Statistics (ENBIS)   to whom Wiley and express their gratitude. This panel are: Ron Kenett, David Steinberg, Shirley Coleman, Irena Ograjenšek, Fabrizio Ruggeri, Rainer Göb, Philippe Castagliola, Xavier Tort-Martorell, Bart De Ketelaere, Antonio Pievatolo, Martina Vandebroek, Lance Mitchell, Gilbert Saporta, Helmut Waldl and Stelios Psarakis.