Canadian Journal of Statistics

Adjustments for reporting delays and the prediction of occurred but not reported events

Journal Article

Abstract

We consider delays that occur in the reporting of events such as cases of a reportable disease or insurance claims. Estimation of the number of events that have occurred but not yet been reported (OBNR events) is then important. Current methods of doing this do not allow random temporal fluctuations in reporting delays, and consequently, confidence or prediction limits on OBNR events tend to be too narrow. We develop an approach that uses recent reporting data and incorporates random effects, thus leading to more reasonable and robust predictions

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