Each week, we select a recently published Open Access article to feature. This week’s article comes from Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry and presents a general framework for aviation safety occurrence forecasting.
The article’s abstract is given below, with the full article available to read here.
, , , . Forecasting aviation safety occurrences. Appl Stochastic Models Bus Ind. 2022; 1– 23. doi:10.1002/asmb.2675
We present a general framework for aviation safety occurrence forecasting. This is a major component of a methodology for aviation safety risk management at national level. It covers novel models as well as novel combinations of earlier models. Having good quality occurrence and severity forecasting models is paramount to properly manage risks, maintain the confidence of its users and preserve the status of aviation as a safe transportation mode. The problem is involved due to the presence of complex effects like seasonality, trends, or stress that impact the rates of various occurrences and the uncertainty about future number of operations.