Layman’s abstract for Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry article on Forecasting aviation safety occurrences

Each week, we publish layman’s abstracts of new articles from our prestigious portfolio of journals in statistics. The aim is to highlight the latest research to a broader audience in an accessible format.
The article featured today is from Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry with the full article now available to read here. 
Flores, BRios Insua, DAlfaro, CGomez, JForecasting aviation safety occurrencesAppl Stochastic Models Bus Ind2022383): 545– 567. doi:10.1002/asmb.2675
Despite the high safety levels of the aviation industry, safety occurrences, i.e. safety-related events which endanger or which if not addressed could endanger an aircraft and its occupants, continue to take place. These may entail undesirable consequences like deaths, injured people, delays, aircraft destruction or reputation loss, among others. Therefore, countries develop national aviation safety plans, implemented through regulations and/or resource allocation, to try to make safety occurrences in their airspace less frequent and/or less severe should they happen. As air freight and passenger traffic is expected to increase in the forthcoming years, notwithstanding the current pandemic, the implementation of effective safety plans in air transportation is of major importance for governments, not only for the safety of its citizens, but also because economic prosperity and employment critically depend on a robust flow of goods and people. Thus, having good quality occurrence forecasting models is paramount to properly manage risks, maintain the confidence of its users and preserve the status of aviation as a safe transportation mode. The problem is involved due to the presence of complex effects like seasonality, trends or stress that impact the rates of various occurrences and the uncertainty about future number of operations. A general framework for aviation safety occurrence forecasting, consisting of novel models as well as novel combinations of earlier models, is presented. 
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