Risk Analysis

Risk of Fetal Mortality After Exposure to  Listeria monocytogenes  Based on Dose‐Response Data from Pregnant Guinea Pigs and Primates

Journal Article

  • Author(s): Denita Williams, Jennifer Castleman, Chi‐Ching Lee, Beth Mote, Mary Alice Smith
  • Article first published online: 23 Oct 2009
  • DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01308.x
  • Read on Online Library
  • Subscribe to Journal

One‐third of the annual cases of listeriosis in the United States occur during pregnancy and can lead to miscarriage or stillbirth, premature delivery, or infection of the newborn. Previous risk assessments completed by the Food and Drug Administration/the Food Safety Inspection Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture/the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (FDA/USDA/CDC)(1) and Food and Agricultural Organization/the World Health Organization (FAO/WHO)(2) were based on dose‐response data from mice. Recent animal studies using nonhuman primates(3,4) and guinea pigs(5) have both estimated LD50s of approximately 107Listeria monocytogenes colony forming units (cfu). The FAO/WHO(2) estimated a human LD50 of 1.9 × 106 cfu based on data from a pregnant woman consuming contaminated soft cheese. We reevaluated risk based on dose‐response curves from pregnant rhesus monkeys and guinea pigs. Using standard risk assessment methodology including hazard identification, exposure assessment, hazard characterization, and risk characterization, risk was calculated based on the new dose‐response information. To compare models, we looked at mortality rate per serving at predicted doses ranging from 10−4 to 1012L. monocytogenes cfu. Based on a serving of 106L. monocytogenes cfu, the primate model predicts a death rate of 5.9 × 10−1 compared to the FDA/USDA/CDC (fig. IV‐12)(1) predicted rate of 1.3 × 10−7. Based on the guinea pig and primate models, the mortality rate calculated by the FDA/USDA/CDC(1) is underestimated for this susceptible population.

Related Topics

Related Publications

Related Content

Address:

This website is provided by John Wiley & Sons Limited, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ (Company No: 00641132, VAT No: 376766987)

Published features on StatisticsViews.com are checked for statistical accuracy by a panel from the European Network for Business and Industrial Statistics (ENBIS)   to whom Wiley and StatisticsViews.com express their gratitude. This panel are: Ron Kenett, David Steinberg, Shirley Coleman, Irena Ograjenšek, Fabrizio Ruggeri, Rainer Göb, Philippe Castagliola, Xavier Tort-Martorell, Bart De Ketelaere, Antonio Pievatolo, Martina Vandebroek and Lance Mitchell.